Trading the COVID Price Action

After the initial shock of COVID, the world is adopting to the "New Normal". Economies around the world will begin to emerge from the damage brought about by the pandemic - as always, we will all come out stronger.

Phibase team views such events as a real time test of the efficacy and profitability of its strategies. iProfit HFT EA has completed seven years in live trading and in the process is proving to be one of the most robust/reliable automated trading systems available commercially. In fact, to the best of our knowledge, iProfit is the only commercially available neural network or AI based system with has a verified track record. We are happy to present the following report on iProfit's current and potential future performance.

The latest V3 released in Sept 2019 has been performing inline with our expectations. iProfit's neural network modeled on a short learning period of 52 hours has been an ideal strategy for Forex trading. This is especially evident in conditions where large fund flows/reallocations between currencies are shifting swiftly within the day. Clearly from iProfit backtests it is evident that the high volatility periods and price action post such major economic events are best suited for the strategy with gains of over 5000 pips seen in Oct 2008- 2009 period. At other periods, iProfit had been gaining consistently between 700 to 1500 pips even during the low volatility periods seen between 2013 to 2016. 

Most traders are interested in how iProfit can perform in such uncertain market conditions going forward. The following analysis is a comparative study of iProfit's performance and the Volatility Index (VIX). 

iProfit Neural Network Algo Trading During Volatile Price Action

During the financial crisis of 2008/2009, the VIX index went above 50 signalling the start of the market meltdown - The new volatile price action lasted for about two years after the start of the crisis. 

iProfit is known to perform well in volatile conditions and had gained about 5000 pips between 2009-2010. In the above chart, the projected period of 2020 to 2022 uses the data and performance seen in 2008/2010 to provide an idea of what the future performance may look like (Of course there is no guarantee it will be a repeat of past performance).

The current market condition is a health disaster - much worse that the financial sector meltdown seen earlier - the market uncertainty and volatility is expected to remain elevated for a much longer period since a lot of sectors are affected due to this pandemic. In addition to this, major events like US elections, Brexit and trade deals will provide iProfit with good opportunities to trade. 



iProfit Past Performance since 2013 and setting risk level

As expected, good performance is seen during the highly volatile price action as economies went into lockdown mode. Since March 2020, we have seen gains of over 1000 pips and we expect good performance from iProfit to continue over the next two years.

iProfit MyFxBook Verified Live Trading Account

iProfit Reference Account : https://www.myfxbook.com/members/forexgermany/iprofit-hft-ea/672452


When a trade is closed the profit or loss, it is expressed in the pip value of the quote currency. The total profit or loss is determined by multiplying the pip difference between the open price and closing price by the number of units of currency traded. This yields the total pip difference between the opening and closing transaction. The equity growth depends on the risk level (lot size) used for trading. When a trader uses low risk the gain and associated risk of drawdown are lower. Similarly when high risk is used, the trader can expect higher gains while accepting a relatively higher drawdown. The risk level analysis provided is intended to be a guide for setting risk and performance expectation on the strategy.

The trading data is derived from IC Markets real account and takes into account the actual swap + commission charges (@$6 per round lot).

iProfit HFT Low Risk Trading Performance Analysis



Low Risk Analysis : @ 1.8% per trade | Max Drawdown 18%

Monthly Equity Gain

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual Gain
2013 -1.11% -2.00% 1.50% 1.07% -1.78% -2.32%
2014 2.40% 0.58% -3.49% 0.94% 1.27% -2.44% 0.74% -3.05% 4.79% -0.41% -1.76% -0.82% -1.26%
2015 10.51% 3.60% -0.20% -7.07% 2.13% 6.59% 2.21% -7.21% -6.84% 3.11% -0.94% 3.06% 8.96%
2016 -4.07% 11.75% -4.76% 5.17% 2.29% -2.21% 3.66% -2.00% 0.09% 3.44% 5.05% 3.71% 22.14%
2017 1.37% 1.15% 6.88% 3.50% 8.02% 5.00% -0.73% -6.00% 4.36% 1.11% -1.20% 2.51% 25.98%
2018 -3.52% 7.0% 4.62% -7.61% -4.40% 1.96% -3.47% 4.18% 1.94% -2.29% 5.45% -2.94% 0.96%
2019 3.16% -0.55% 5.73% 0.63% 7.30% 2.39% -8.33% -10.13> 5.20% 6.01% 0.00% 0.84% 12.24%
2020 -1.95% -0.81% 8.04% 5.96% 10.23% 4.38% 1.24% 5.58% 32.67%

iProfit HFT Medium Risk Trading Performance Analysis



Medium Risk Analysis : @ 2.5% per trade | Max Drawdown 30%
Monthly Equity Gain

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual Gain
2013 -1.56% -2.72% 2.03% 1.46% -2.49% -3.29%
2014 3.28% 0.78% -4.97% 1.19% 1.68% -3.42% 0.99% -4.29% 6.64% -0.46% -2.48% -1.17% -2.21%
2015 14.30% 4.99% -0.41% -10.08% 2.82% 8.94% 2.90% -10.29% -9.91% 4.25% -1.48% 4.28% 10.31%
2016 -5.80% 15.69% -6.78% 7.20% 3.12% -3.32% 5.02% -2.97% 0.20% 4.82% 7.05% 5.16% 29.38%
2017 1.66% 1.55% 9.48% 4.91% 11.01% 6.89% -0.97% -8.56% 6.12% 1.56% -1.68% 3.48% 35.45%
2018 -4.90% 9.58% 6.33% -10.84% -6.27% 2.68% -4.88% 5.80% 2.80% -3.32% 7.54% -4.11% 0.43%
2019 4.50% -0.82% 7.88% 0.88% 10.10% 3.31% -11.98% -14.64% 6.96% 8.31% -0.02% 1.06% 15.54%
2020 -2.78% -1.14% 10.86% 8.16% 14.03% 6.04% 1.64% 7.72% 44.53%

iProfit HFT High Risk Trading Performance Analysis



High Risk Analysis : @ 4% per trade | Max Drawdown 44%

Monthly Equity Gain

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual Gain
2013 -2.53% -4.41% 3.16% 2.06% -4.27% -5.99%
2014 5.05% 1.11% -7.92% 1.91% 2.63% -5.41% 1.56% -6.85% 10.01% -0.80% -4.04% -2.20% -4.95%
2015 21.43% 7.22% -0.86% -16.60% 4.44% 13.57% 4.42% -16.79% -16.32% 6.20% -2.35% 6.48% 10.84%
2016 -9.54% 23.05% -11.33% 10.74% 4.98% -5.57% 7.64% -4.82% 0.14% 7.30% 10.63% 7.71% 40.96%
2017 2.55% 2.42% 14.53% 7.54% 16.60% 10.49% -1.64% -14.10% 9.14% 2.26% -2.80% 5.38% 52.37%
2018 -8.08% 14.60% 9.68% -17.68% -10.18% 4.15% -7.90% 8.89% 4.19% -5.31% 11.55% -6.60% -2.70%
2019 6.78% -1.45% 11.99% 1.36% 15.31% 5.01% -19.89% -24.25% 10.49% 12.58% -0.7% 1.44% 19.30%
2020 -4.53% -1.80% 15.66% 12.13% 20.90% 9.11% 2.40% 11.40% 65.26%